TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x879b…2f18

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
195
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$631Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$631.37
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$73
Trump cabinet member out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$261
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.72
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+95.6%+$91.39
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration first?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.48
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$13
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Services in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.49
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$52
Will the US sanction Ukraine before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$484.14
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+394.8%+$694.59
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.68
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.78
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.38
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
Will Vitalik Buterin attend the March 7 Crypto Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$149.4
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$22.4
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$172.15
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$62.95
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$18
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$401.97
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+132.8%+$112.02
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.86
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+170.9%+$138.24
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$109
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$21.5
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$651.92
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.72
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$11.14
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$160.52
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+96.9%+$49.21
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+133.9%+$381.24
Will Trump deport Ukrainians before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.2
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+128.3%+$295.34
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$303.28
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+120.5%+$98.72
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.08
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$261.72
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$360.16
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.8
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT2737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.2
Canada backs out of F-35 deal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.5
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$325
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$338.5
Will the next Pope be from Europe?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.35
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.2
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$161
Trump meets with Carney in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$86.5
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.5
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.89
Will Donald Trump say Pay 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$111.95
Will Donald Trump say Zelensky 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+143.9%+$23.6
Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+187.3%+$169.5
Will Donald Trump say Tariff 5+ times during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+181.2%+$32.22
Will Donald Trump say Germany during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+287.3%+$207.7
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+143.9%+$59
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$132.2
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
Trudeau resigns by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+50.3%+$122
Germany confidence vote in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+165.2%+$43.6
Will Maia Sandu win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$669Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2024, EST-100%-$669.4
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.63
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.38
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.5
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.85
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$27
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+81%+$268.5
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+400%+$40
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Austria finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.49
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST120%0 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$450.33
Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$44.8
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 2+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$178
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$82.73
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$60.25
Will Donald Trump say "Trudeau" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.7
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$283.37
Will England win on 2025-09-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$317.5
Will Italy win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$30.1
Will Kosovo win on 2025-09-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Will Poland win on 2025-09-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will Spain win on 2025-09-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Georgia vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Croatia win on 2025-09-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+25%+$30.25
Will France win on 2025-09-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Syria hold national elections before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$148
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$197
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+42.9%+$15
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+656.3%+$514.01
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+118.7%+$106.91
Will Israel strike Iran on Monday or earlier?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT+64.6%+$12.91
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 25, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$146.54
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+35%+$119.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Official Trump above $12.50 on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$64.53
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Aug 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter win on 2025-08-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+37%+$18.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+32.1%+$24.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
West Virginia vs. Texas Techbacked Texas Tech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2024, EST+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+25%+$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$151.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$643.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Sep 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ye tweet again by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$187.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.