Movies · resolved market
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76fecf16a05d11f70647e54c061cfb92764837b7dcccab73ff2a67854c69e3f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,527$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 9,647$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.41 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,907$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 2c | 6,637$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,534$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 26c | 5,344$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.85 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 13c | 2,882$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,861$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…933cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…3ac0backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4f…6310backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 3c | 1,683$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,447$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,251$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,001$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 49c | 724.45$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.17 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 50c | 710.08$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.42 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 38c | 700$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 59c | 700$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 21c | 590$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 73c | 575$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 7c | 485.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 14c | 451.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 76c | 376.77$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…2b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 280.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Yes | 21c | 265$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed No | 42c | 237.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 40c | 230$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 215.17$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed No | 65c | 192.18$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 12c | 182.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 45c | 181.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 42c | 143.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 59c | 120.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed No | 41c | 118.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…1604backed Yes | 64c | 117.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 112.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed No | 46c | 98.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 46c | 86.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 63.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 74c | 54.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…f806backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…c65dbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…f80abacked No | 50c | 31.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…7a88backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…3fc8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x259d…a108backed Yes | 71c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.