Movies · resolved market
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3ae81453ae3d744121944eaf0a627ed001e906e095418c6737a537aa1166a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6495…b185backed Yes | 25c | 21,734$5,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,518.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 21c | 15,295$3,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,272.98 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 7,323$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.3 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,270$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 5,650$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.95 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 6c | 5,218$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.75 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 8c | 3,944$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…6fbabacked Yes | 4c | 2,543$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 19c | 1,859$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.15 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,831$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,815$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,429$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Yes | 10c | 1,356$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 17c | 1,183$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 24c | 1,170$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.43 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 13c | 1,141$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…12f8backed Yes | 18c | 1,125$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,118$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe26…5b15backed Yes | 14c | 1,062$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 890.19$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 13c | 802.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 5c | 746.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 21c | 654$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 16c | 649.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 586.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…542bbacked Yes | 21c | 581.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…3e53backed Yes | 3c | 556.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 20c | 485.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 26c | 470$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 17c | 400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 18c | 366.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 348.4$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 12c | 340$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a82…faa3backed Yes | 15c | 325.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed Yes | 20c | 322.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fb…bee1backed Yes | 20c | 318.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…c459backed Yes | 4c | 308.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…499ebacked Yes | 26c | 302.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…15a2backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed Yes | 38c | 293.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 7c | 276.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 14c | 266$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…879bbacked Yes | 19c | 262.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 21c | 236.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 21c | 222.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 25c | 220$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 26c | 156.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 12c | 155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 17c | 152.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a1…680dbacked Yes | 20c | 148.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdc…c88ebacked Yes | 35c | 144.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 23c | 144.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…70b2backed Yes | 33c | 135.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…d6f9backed Yes | 8c | 127.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…1dfbbacked Yes | 28c | 90.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 20c | 75.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed No | 74c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Smile 2' gross more than $27m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.