TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x767c…ca6a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+460.8%+$2,764.9
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+279.6%+$1,677.58
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$465.71
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+300%+$93.99
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.39
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.36
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.91
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.39
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.01
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$76.16
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.96
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$499.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockies vs. Guardiansbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$146.9
Athletics vs. Rangersbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+31.6%+$155.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Crimean bridge hit before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.