TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,330,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,351,481

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,330,965 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5297…7b99backed Yes0c2,394,314$10,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,448.467613.2%10 W · 66 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick28cpaid+123.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa253…c48fbacked Yes3c2,111,174$64,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,836.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5e…39a9backed Yes0c1,000,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes1c789,080$11,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,533.09400%0 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes4c698,533$26,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,281.2112650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x152f…a549backed Yes2c566,210$10,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,853.532330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes2c542,981$8,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,883.5392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes2c526,032$11,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,877.216013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad4…48d1backed Yes0c517,166$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38dd…44cfbacked Yes0c404,000$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x485a…21cbbacked Yes3c382,134$10,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,710.87147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-87.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3915…faffbacked Yes1c362,426$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,324.31922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc2…5319backed Yes1c327,745$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c299,991$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.98350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c267,264$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.8443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d1…f57ebacked Yes1c263,409$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes1c254,314$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.09333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-82.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1f…a772backed Yes0c245,535$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-55.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes0c209,996$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87b6…7c06backed Yes0c208,664$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes1c187,076$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.792544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68c0…4991backed Yes0c180,376$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c178,000$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.858817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9697…8e9abacked Yes1c175,280$2,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.1940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes3c174,525$4,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.4310417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xad19…a7adbacked Yes3c164,423$4,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1371040%4 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+63.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf99f…8742backed Yes5c150,239$6,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,771.983330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35b7…50c3backed Yes2c147,755$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0b…d2ccbacked Yes1c138,098$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1425…d3e7backed Yes1c134,031$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.7780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes0c125,220$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Yes1c123,706$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.182611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0769…3950backed Yes3c118,922$3,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-59.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes1c115,481$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.711146.1%7 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes2c115,138$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.931816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes4c112,353$4,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,595.892850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7802…e9cbbacked Yes0c99,450$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…9fc0backed Yes0c97,796$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…50ddbacked Yes0c94,667$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19fc…b4e3backed Yes4c93,947$3,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c89,471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.423103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes3c88,988$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.1910528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes3c86,953$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,57114227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c86,684$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.04190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2380…b53ebacked Yes4c79,000$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,967.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1616…896cbacked Yes1c77,226$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.1590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Yes4c75,807$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.593315.2%5 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878f…1755backed Yes3c75,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0503221.9%7 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes1c72,080$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.96402.5%1 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick11cpaid-83.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes4c70,050$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes3c68,968$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde32…9b69backed Yes1c66,937$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d7…0278backed Yes2c63,067$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes4c60,688$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.312733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+77.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d16…e798backed Yes7c58,873$4,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1872512%3 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+405.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…1e4ebacked Yes1c57,700$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-73.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd90…bbdbbacked Yes0c56,978$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.08540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+372.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5b…d168backed Yes2c56,913$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4c…b2f5backed Yes0c55,803$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.21119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-74.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes3c55,540$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.6412037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c51,845$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.0942120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a58…dd44backed Yes0c50,477$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245424.8%2 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+137.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes1c50,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4409441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28c3…da06backed Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes3c48,719$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.117032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes2c45,586$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.896616.7%11 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7a…0d8bbacked Yes4c43,648$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick7cpaid+177.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c43,571$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.0521831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c7f…09efbacked Yes1c43,225$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.99130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes1c42,766$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.36120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed8…e5aebacked Yes7c42,658$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5a…b691backed Yes0c42,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4980%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes1c41,911$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.912840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c41,373$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.4621521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Yes3c40,081$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c40,000$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f35…17dabacked Yes1c39,405$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bc03backed Yes3c39,113$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c38,892$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.5812223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes3c37,706$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.1588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes4c36,996$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.666936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4e…2e3ebacked Yes5c36,666$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.29128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-87%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b68…cd17backed Yes2c35,469$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c35,387$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.533717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fef…4849backed Yes1c35,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes3c35,000$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88521531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes4c34,998$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.811527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f87…b2cabacked Yes3c34,900$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes2c34,443$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.5144224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x412c…2d87backed Yes3c32,127$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.817433.8%25 W · 49 L+11.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+259.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Yes6c32,117$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a33…c087backed Yes2c31,624$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003020%6 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x065b…b725backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70e2…5c64backed Yes5c29,947$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4411338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick11cpaid+811.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes1c29,889$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.477136.6%26 W · 45 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes1c29,528$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4415023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…2ec5backed Yes2c29,121$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.98130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes4c27,925$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.287627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes1c27,743$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8416739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.