TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeeb1…bf68

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
419
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT15023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 150 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.81
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.19
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.17
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+458.5%+$1,910.99
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.66
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.52
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.44
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$153.01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.07
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$44.45
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$628.31
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.23
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+172.5%+$230.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.79
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,985.4%+$1,616.1
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$109
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$191
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.77
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.88
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.48
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.5
Showing 25 of 150 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 106 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+485.3%+$102.55
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$148.51
Peter Attia out by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+192.1%+$96.05
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+270.4%+$292
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$23.75
Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$63.05
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+132.6%+$33.14
U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+116.5%+$41.01
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Michael Anton be next National Security Advisor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.34
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.78
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.87
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$20.61
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$88.08
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$479Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+77.7%+$371.8
Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+6,566.7%+$985
Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13.32
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+78.6%+$39.29
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$200
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$349.14
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$608.45
First enacted funding bill include ACA premium subsidy extension?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$105.42
Showing 25 of 106 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$34.47
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$35
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$56.48
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.97
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$110
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$584.8
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+132.6%+$132.56
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+1,050.9%+$2,932.11
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$700.01
Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$108
Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$18.79
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.9
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$21.2
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$140.84
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$25
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$156.67
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$35.33
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$54.54
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.84
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$21.95
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77.07
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$90.07
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$186.04
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$270
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$148
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$987Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$986.79
Will Trump and Zelenskyy only be photographed together, without a clear handshake?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$91
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$565Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$564.52
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$929.88
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+87.8%+$87.8
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+81.1%+$217.98
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$475.92
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.24
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?backed Gaza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+86.3%+$104.92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.76
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.26
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+167.1%+$836.15
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$143.02
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$707.47
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$369.97
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT3417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.9
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,275Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+347.6%+$4,430.59
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.63
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$20.37
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$529.77
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$539.43
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.33
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$60
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.31
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,863Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,863.2
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.36
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.49
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+30.5%+$11.7
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24.38
Yoon out of custody in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lee Jae-myung arrested in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.6
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96.05
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
North Korea missile launch by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+3,574.9%+$1,322.17
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.15
North Korea x South Korea military clash by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.19
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.67
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.74
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$85.34
Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.57
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+103.9%+$108.5
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.13
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 17?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.99
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 16?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$88.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+109.8%+$549.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
D4vd arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.