World Politics · resolved market
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c169e95aea67be5fac1529b3ad8e891fe97ec54d1f272fab43b02cce948f6c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,475,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,356,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,475,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e05…11d6backed Yes | 23c | 952,196$219,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219,143.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 190,439$151,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,568.81 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 79c | 81,211$64,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,125.59 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd250…8e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 71,266$9,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,976.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 79c | 61,172$48,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,820.56 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 52,751$41,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,557.8 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…4f7bbacked Yes | 19c | 32,615$6,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,321.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 29,013$23,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,922.38 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 22,813$17,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,117.55 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 18c | 22,300$4,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,054.98 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 75c | 21,896$16,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,399.17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed No | 75c | 20,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 18,661$14,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.51 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 75c | 17,084$12,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 12c | 15,416$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 16c | 15,233$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 15,188$12,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 80c | 14,722$11,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…5c9fbacked Yes | 14c | 13,980$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 70c | 13,413$9,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,059.97 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…06ffbacked Yes | 23c | 12,835$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 12,331$9,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.66 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 76c | 11,600$8,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.36 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 74c | 11,500$8,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 9,878$7,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.46 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 34c | 9,189$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,130.92 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 8,334$6,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.55 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 19c | 8,044$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 77c | 8,000$6,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…a393backed Yes | 23c | 7,041$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 6,204$4,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.86 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 78c | 6,134$4,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 24c | 6,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 5,955$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.66 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 5,767$4,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 78c | 5,684$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 75c | 5,525$4,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 71c | 5,511$3,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.76 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 80c | 5,181$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.45 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 80c | 4,975$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.89 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 25c | 4,645$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.29 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 22c | 4,493$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.54 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,182$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 4,058$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.93 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed No | 75c | 3,902$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 68c | 3,798$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.49 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 3,673$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.41 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,570$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…203dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,148$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 62c | 3,101$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.44 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…5ef2backed Yes | 34c | 3,042$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 68c | 2,955$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.74 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Yes | 8c | 2,846$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…1e22backed Yes | 15c | 2,776$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…2db7backed Yes | 16c | 2,743$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 73c | 2,700$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…1d32backed Yes | 21c | 2,650$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 74c | 2,627$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 27c | 2,479$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.32 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 34c | 2,213$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 2,191$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 24c | 2,188$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.52 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 24c | 2,119$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 28c | 2,086$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.94 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…7546backed Yes | 20c | 1,954$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 1,952$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a24…c5dcbacked No | 77c | 1,877$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,876$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…4f12backed Yes | 18c | 1,848$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Yes | 16c | 1,800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 75c | 1,600$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…ab24backed No | 79c | 1,551$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed04…4302backed Yes | 2c | 1,512$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,504$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,484$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.39 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked No | 76c | 1,479$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…4ae2backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bd…86fcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,419$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 1,400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.58 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…25e0backed Yes | 21c | 1,390$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 1,357$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.15 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 73c | 1,351$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 75c | 1,293$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.95 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…8186backed Yes | 8c | 1,283$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 19c | 1,271$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,263$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…0d6bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,115$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 1,113$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.31 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,100$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed No | 66c | 1,100$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…f4f6backed Yes | 25c | 1,098$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 1,092$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.95 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 72c | 1,048$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.6 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 27c | 1,047$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 7c | 1,044$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?this page
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes won
- Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.