World Politics · resolved market
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85980a4d08e4cf7911782b632108d17b124171c1e1610cf7861e260c6daf3538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,832,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,823,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,832,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58df…b4adbacked Yes | 5c | 386,166$19,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,901.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…6047backed Yes | 5c | 381,178$19,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,148.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed Yes | 5c | 269,939$12,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,294.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 5c | 264,331$12,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,545.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb4…45f3backed Yes | 1c | 220,613$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…f035backed Yes | 2c | 192,184$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…d763backed Yes | 1c | 184,293$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29e…a2cabacked Yes | 3c | 147,739$4,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,186.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…b541backed Yes | 1c | 142,862$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 89,420$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.17 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…4d82backed Yes | 4c | 71,161$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…2db7backed Yes | 5c | 69,136$3,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,416.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…6094backed Yes | 2c | 64,973$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…e869backed Yes | 1c | 64,567$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1bbabacked Yes | 2c | 60,388$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4f…6a22backed Yes | 5c | 50,536$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 5c | 50,112$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…8d7cbacked Yes | 3c | 45,958$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe5…b65dbacked Yes | 4c | 44,026$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 2c | 42,914$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 3c | 42,661$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.66 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…608cbacked Yes | 4c | 36,591$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…6e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 35,860$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…37e1backed Yes | 1c | 35,431$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…0ce2backed Yes | 1c | 33,090$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 33,035$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.76 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed Yes | 1c | 32,010$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d3…2f54backed Yes | 2c | 31,504$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…1c5fbacked Yes | 4c | 31,445$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14b…b3f1backed Yes | 2c | 30,417$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…a74bbacked Yes | 4c | 28,870$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…e463backed Yes | 1c | 26,510$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 1c | 25,988$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…a05ebacked Yes | 1c | 25,013$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…203dbacked Yes | 3c | 24,965$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 2c | 24,863$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…6630backed Yes | 1c | 24,336$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…7546backed Yes | 2c | 22,121$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,720$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.99 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…bc33backed Yes | 1c | 21,375$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…9801backed Yes | 1c | 21,312$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…d0e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,911$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6eb…4bb2backed Yes | 1c | 20,697$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 1c | 20,051$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…85d9backed Yes | 2c | 19,778$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748b…988cbacked Yes | 8c | 19,361$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…8186backed Yes | 0c | 19,014$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3f…9d8dbacked Yes | 4c | 17,330$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…54bebacked Yes | 6c | 16,867$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…32bfbacked Yes | 6c | 16,622$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…eb1abacked Yes | 5c | 16,327$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…1feebacked Yes | 1c | 15,459$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…fa87backed Yes | 1c | 15,111$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95eb…274ebacked Yes | 4c | 15,043$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…3ebebacked Yes | 1c | 14,338$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 1c | 13,779$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked Yes | 1c | 13,706$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…81fbbacked Yes | 4c | 13,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82c…8919backed Yes | 1c | 12,977$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…8bffbacked Yes | 1c | 12,951$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…592ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,909$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…47aabacked Yes | 2c | 12,305$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4800…e9f6backed Yes | 1c | 12,154$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…f35abacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,770$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…0a86backed Yes | 2c | 10,669$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 1c | 10,185$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,841$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…c380backed Yes | 1c | 9,624$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…4b1bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,539$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56c…2b44backed Yes | 2c | 9,069$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…6a58backed Yes | 3c | 9,059$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…2fe5backed Yes | 4c | 8,847$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa947…47bdbacked Yes | 6c | 8,845$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…be16backed Yes | 8c | 8,786$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…deb5backed Yes | 1c | 8,462$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23f0…b9d4backed Yes | 6c | 8,151$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…7b0bbacked Yes | 11c | 7,778$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 5c | 7,639$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9374…ce99backed Yes | 4c | 7,612$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…a4afbacked Yes | 2c | 7,201$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 7,139$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…c33abacked Yes | 7c | 6,905$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e1…3584backed Yes | 2c | 6,599$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18a…e036backed Yes | 1c | 6,174$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,947$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 5,862$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…4ae2backed Yes | 1c | 5,697$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…6a41backed Yes | 7c | 5,187$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…df47backed Yes | 4c | 4,963$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61a2…7080backed Yes | 3c | 4,919$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…d7c6backed Yes | 1c | 4,848$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…6c68backed Yes | 1c | 4,763$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,653$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…425bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,431$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 7c | 4,179$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…65cdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?this page
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes won
- Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
- Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.