TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcbab…9a8a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT4047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twinsbacked Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.55
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$128
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,027Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$324.23
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$198.92
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.89
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.99
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.45
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.99
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astrosbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+203.1%+$149.34
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$157.62
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangersbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$151.18
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$132
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Soxbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$127.39
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.47
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+142%+$104.46
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.92
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.76
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+1,233.3%+$513.36
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.69
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$306.75
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2025 NL MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,239.67
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,964Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,964.22
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers be eliminated in the Division Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+79.3%+$237.54
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,947Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,947
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20,940Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+508.1%+$106,400.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$120,028Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$37,784.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$684Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$684.39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$547.79
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$8,282Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$2,460.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,395Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$645.27
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$607Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+124%+$752.32
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$16.8
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.91
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.25
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+40.6%+$384.78
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+107.7%+$519.1
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$315
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick70cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,776.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,270.08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,568Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$3,901.35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,459Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$1,663.82
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 27 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$854Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$388.79
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$29.94
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.4
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$8,721Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$5,121.65
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.15
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,255.66
Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$868Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$868.16
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+52%+$216.6
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$831Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+80.6%+$669.74
Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.47
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$29.85
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$109.63
All 9 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+47.1%+$27.57
Will the United States win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.66
Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$20.62
Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+41.1%+$46.23
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$330
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57.1
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$100
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.45
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+60.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,487Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$721.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+37%+$135
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$81.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,419Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$1,249.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.