Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd41929a93c691de170b3bd4af29eef7119b37f31dbb99221caf6708b39e9c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 8c | 3,301$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.26 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,370$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked No | 18c | 2,001$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 63c | 1,593$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.23 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 1,479$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 69c | 1,257$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 79c | 721.16$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 19c | 711$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 622.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.69 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 619.22$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 596.29$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.56 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 570.15$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 14c | 555.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.14 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45a3…12f0backed Yes | 38c | 410.91$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 17c | 242.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed No | 7c | 234.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 67c | 170.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 16c | 163.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 14c | 158.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.26 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 69c | 115.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 20c | 113.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…61b6backed No | 16c | 83.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 42c | 70.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 69.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 44c | 65.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?this page
- Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?Yes won
- Will Wesley Hunt win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.