Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18bbeeccd19359155f6abe3538be2bb31828abe4415b22f322ce0b93b96657d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 36c | 2,859$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 10c | 2,212$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.6 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 16c | 2,200$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked No | 2c | 2,120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 74c | 1,687$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 1,217$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.75 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 1c | 1,193$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…98aebacked No | 17c | 1,108$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +103%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 19c | 968.06$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 53c | 898.01$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 14c | 765$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 72c | 670.7$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 18c | 645.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 593.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.43 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 18c | 588.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 15c | 553.41$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.41 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 6c | 529.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 7c | 378.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 48c | 360.77$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 331.94$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 65c | 316.62$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.33 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 16c | 260$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 67c | 224$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +179%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 216$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.48 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 78c | 196.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 167.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.51 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 166.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 162.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.9 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…6360backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 18c | 141.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…ab8bbacked Yes | 21c | 127.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +372.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 23c | 120.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 119.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 17c | 114.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 51c | 94.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a21…e009backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 88.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 79.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 19c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 31c | 67.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 16c | 64.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 41c | 56.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 46.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 39c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…5670backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?this page
- Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?No won
- Will Wesley Hunt win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.