Olympics · resolved market
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58fac4ccbef81bc1b071ab7172615a76418f8fe2ac9f52ae2510e8b8f8099b32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $434,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 4c | 41,456$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.5 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 39,179$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…0390backed Yes | 0c | 30,767$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5f…5ef0backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 18,863$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…7c20backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 1c | 9,958$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 9,109$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,001$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 7c | 6,967$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.62 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 0c | 6,398$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 6,194$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…d612backed Yes | 2c | 6,072$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…bef8backed Yes | 1c | 5,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,026$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 7c | 3,894$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 3,747$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…0540backed Yes | 0c | 3,021$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…943ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 6c | 2,633$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,584$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,568$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…643cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,542$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,917$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d2…fb27backed Yes | 4c | 1,897$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 10c | 1,884$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,767$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,700$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 1c | 1,634$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…ee1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,552$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,474$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,415$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 8c | 1,171$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 942.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.41 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed Yes | 8c | 898.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 3c | 872.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 11c | 872.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 2c | 822.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 3c | 820.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 12c | 797$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 740.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…d4e2backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 698$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 4c | 660$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 8c | 608.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 12c | 580$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…6bf3backed Yes | 4c | 541.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 499.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed Yes | 7c | 499$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 7c | 490$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 2c | 477.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 5c | 432.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 4c | 413.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 402.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 4c | 359.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…3f7bbacked Yes | 6c | 349.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 6c | 317$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…46e6backed Yes | 7c | 264.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…45a3backed Yes | 10c | 201.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…8e6cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 12c | 192.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Yes | 16c | 160.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…c9b2backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sweden win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.