TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3710…2b8d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+564.5%+$1,698.93
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.6
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.99
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.8
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$50.15
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$104.75
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37%+$351.17
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+70.5%+$91
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.4
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$70.18
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+38.2%+$33.2
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+44.9%+$13.02
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$159
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$70.63
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+411.2%+$79.79
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$42.79
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+38.9%+$140
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+48.5%+$98
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday?backed No Change · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+91%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+132.6%+$269.14
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$99.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the San Antonio Spurs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$3.8
Spurs vs. Cavaliersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$39.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Dvalishvili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$15.2
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Poirier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+135.7%+$19.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2backed Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$14.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$13.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.