Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Syria by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd146f5f188a687a06ea438d430c91612b3f789b50e14003d7c724e2dcd42d973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $311,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $338,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 77c | 38,896$29,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,791.85 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 71c | 15,643$11,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,594.84 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…3017backed Yes | 17c | 12,198$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,098.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe307…d8eebacked Yes | 20c | 11,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 8,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,400 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 1c | 7,892$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked No | 77c | 7,485$5,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,789.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a7…15c4backed Yes | 14c | 6,555$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 12c | 5,400$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,763.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes | 15c | 5,382$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,553.86 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…672ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,320$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,735.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +268.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 18c | 5,207$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,261.09 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 31c | 4,584$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,167.22 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,133$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,369.95 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 68c | 3,964$2,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.17 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 2,819$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.76 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…fe90backed Yes | 28c | 2,816$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…974ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,766$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +243.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 2,700$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 31c | 2,597$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.52 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…77bcbacked Yes | 20c | 2,100$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 19c | 2,078$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,019$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.4 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…3ec4backed Yes | 30c | 2,013$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.85 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.1 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.69 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,879$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +95%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 18c | 1,851$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed Yes | 17c | 1,785$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 19c | 1,745$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.48 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed No | 59c | 1,688$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,646$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.77 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 16c | 1,610$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,352.33 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 77c | 1,522$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.4 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,509$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.34 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45f…2a82backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.97 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 13c | 1,260$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed Yes | 37c | 1,243$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 14c | 1,237$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.53 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,210$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.4 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,210$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.88 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 41c | 1,200$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 1,155$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.76 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 58c | 1,096$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.56 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,010$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 29c | 902$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.52 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…411cbacked No | 77c | 886.59$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 54c | 867.05$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 800$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 68c | 800$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 23c | 757.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.67 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…1a17backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +556.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 33c | 740.32$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.36 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ff…f3f3backed Yes | 22c | 703.76$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +127%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…38c0backed Yes | 31c | 699.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.66 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 71c | 687.82$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…2d82backed Yes | 40c | 674$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…acffbacked Yes | 18c | 670.19$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 27c | 666.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 76c | 656.08$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.62 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…ac16backed No | 80c | 610$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 44c | 600$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.13 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 28c | 572.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.03 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e9…4f6cbacked Yes | 18c | 550$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.07 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…17fcbacked Yes | 18c | 545.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…3f38backed Yes | 16c | 535.11$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +567.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…f720backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…6d60backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…ce37backed Yes | 35c | 488.51$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…a309backed Yes | 20c | 432.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 69c | 429.46$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 56c | 419.12$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…ea04backed Yes | 11c | 409.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 11c | 405$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.45 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 12c | 400.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 24c | 400$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 69c | 386.1$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 21c | 382.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 73c | 373.5$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Yes | 29c | 350.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.5 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…df24backed Yes | 34c | 311.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 18c | 301.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.75 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…43d1backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…1a42backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…964bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 61c | 292.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked No | 61c | 280$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…afbcbacked No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…354dbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7c…4d13backed Yes | 18c | 248.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.53 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…8bd3backed Yes | 19c | 242.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Syria by December 31?this page
- US strike on Syria by December 14?No won
- US strike on Syria by December 19?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by January 31?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.