Middle East · resolved market
US strike on Syria by December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x492b2c3a2584ef865ad066136b287ee2224d78bac6610a31e604965a764766e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 29,495$5,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,591.94 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 43c | 13,936$6,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,907.17 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…3017backed Yes | 2c | 8,885$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,685.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 7c | 7,640$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,068.05 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,671$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,315.86 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 21c | 3,200$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…dfcdbacked No | 80c | 3,043$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf45…6560backed No | 73c | 2,700$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 58c | 2,285$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.86 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 12c | 1,870$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 21c | 1,850$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…974ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,786$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +243.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 18c | 1,694$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.17 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 10c | 1,584$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 6c | 1,574$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,440$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 1,400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.99 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,332$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,100$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,051$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.43 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…6fa7backed No | 79c | 1,020$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 30c | 998.08$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.15 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 944.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.92 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed No | 78c | 913.2$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 1c | 844.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 9c | 840$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 7c | 840$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 63c | 812.9$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.03 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…1a17backed Yes | 9c | 812.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +556.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 27c | 812.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.65 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 32c | 800$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.79 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…f9e5backed Yes | 25c | 790.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 13c | 788.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.77 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 17c | 786$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 753.35$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 4c | 700$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.7 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 699.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.99 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 13c | 675.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 674.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.41 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 79c | 619.86$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 602.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.53 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 17c | 598.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.34 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 54c | 593.26$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 560$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.09 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 23c | 559.89$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.72 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 9c | 549.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 72c | 524.53$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 9c | 498.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 57c | 411.39$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 405$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.1 | 118 | 16.1%19 W · 99 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 401.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.3 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 72c | 395$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.73 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x067d…ee59backed Yes | 5c | 386.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 367.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 345$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 54c | 337.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 328$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.09 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 20c | 325$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 324.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.74 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 295.5$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.12 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…9e95backed Yes | 8c | 256.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 253.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 9c | 230.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 17c | 225$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 12c | 210.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 76c | 205.51$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 44c | 203.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…843abacked Yes | 31c | 203$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 42c | 200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Yes | 17c | 189.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Yes | 7c | 183.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3be…94e4backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 47c | 171.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 25c | 141.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…6d17backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 130.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.94 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed No | 65c | 113.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e7…19debacked Yes | 14c | 108.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 66c | 103.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…6bccbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…00ecbacked Yes | 12c | 85.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 70c | 70.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strike on Syria by December 19?this page
- US strike on Syria by December 14?No won
- US strike on Syria by December 31?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by January 31?Yes won
- US strike on Syria by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.