TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e0c…6b3c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
191
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 58 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST4938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$3,792Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$3,792.05
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,920Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+39.5%+$1,945.35
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+48.2%+$21.15
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+86.2%+$31.94
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+73.4%+$27.51
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+76.6%+$36.86
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+90.3%+$25.5
Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$21.4
Will the government shutdown end November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.54
Will the government shutdown end November 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.38
Will the government shutdown end November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
Will the government shutdown end November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$34.35
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+297.5%+$102.33
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$48.07
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$68.37
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$36.47
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.27
Will the Government shutdown end before October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.18
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$640Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$640
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.72
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.56
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+32.3%+$25.15
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$17.82
Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+108.6%+$589.9
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$368.92
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST4126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$51.41
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+31.1%+$8.31
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.51
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+42.9%+$15.82
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$862Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+26.1%+$224.89
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$215.54
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$251.03
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$3,711Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$3,710.51
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12,588Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+38.3%+$4,822.85
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11,999.07
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$8,278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+140%+$11,588.03
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80.18
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,609Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+39.9%+$1,440.02
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$591Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$590.73
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$24.01
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,053.96
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$4,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,025.41
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$644.47
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$901Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+78.3%+$704.82
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.09
Will turnout be between 66% and 69% in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$665Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+36.9%+$245.14
Will PAS win by between 4-8% of the vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$31.14
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST2958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,258Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+71.4%+$897.3
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$293.21
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$539.67
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+99.5%+$303.54
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$344.38
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$736Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+72.8%+$536.24
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$156
Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.55
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+114%+$175.05
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+32.4%+$103.08
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$110.79
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$755.3
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,194Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$849.24
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+102%+$76.64
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$319.51
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$686.33
Will Trump post 100-119 times on Truth March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$5.48
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,002Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+149.3%+$1,495.37
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$655.46
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,784Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$1,508.66
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$839.93
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,781Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$543.99
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,604Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$915.84
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$903Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$903.13
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$95,823Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+41.6%+$39,903.16
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$84.14
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$6,283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,283.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33,311Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33,311.36
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$107.24
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$115.86
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$762Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$762.48
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$27.36
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$359.41
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$2,190.37
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$41.82
Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$630.07
Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.07
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,079Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+32.8%+$681.28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$221
No US strike on Syria in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+581.2%+$2,294.62
US strike on Syria by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$223.11
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+811.2%+$272.06
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,655Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,654.75
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,547Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+109.8%+$1,698.55
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,702Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+74.8%+$2,022.55
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+114%+$224.65
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,126Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,126.05
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.63
Will Apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.53
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+53.1%+$38.09
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+73.2%+$659.04
Will Cursor support Grok-3 before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+121%+$69.77
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$697.81
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$910Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$909.58
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,333Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.5%+$945.92
Will a hurricane form by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.04
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$42.25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$16
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.39
All 8 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+115.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+100%+$6,000
Heat vs. Hawks: O/U 249.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,907Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+100%+$2,907
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will egg prices drop this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+100%+$100
Will average US gas price be $3.16 on February 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+78.9%+$201.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Egypt vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Egypt win on 2025-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$5,236Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+85.2%+$4,460.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+96.1%+$151.89
Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$3,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles: O/U 156.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$73.5
St. John's Red Storm vs. Creighton Bluejaysbacked Creighton Bluejays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$72
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MOUZ win the BLAST Open Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.24
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nepomniachtchi vs. Keymer backed Keymer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,292Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$1,712.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.