Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdee1bbc148f004498c4aea692079dcffef7508a267f55a69371a6330e4db2bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cbf…9a4abacked Yes | 0c | 6,491$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 29c | 4,125$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.94 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 28c | 3,279$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 72c | 1,815$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 1,772$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.42 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 22c | 1,759$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 76c | 1,758$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 56c | 1,635$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Yes | 48c | 1,391$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 72c | 1,380$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe15…14c0backed No | 72c | 1,094$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 24c | 1,087$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 76c | 1,022$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…4d76backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 22c | 951$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 917.36$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 44c | 912.83$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 24c | 906$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed No | 78c | 893$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 79c | 851$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 24c | 838$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 46c | 816.43$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 796$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…3399backed No | 75c | 753.97$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 742.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7763backed No | 78c | 730$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 24c | 708$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 77c | 699$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 48c | 677.43$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 78c | 664.75$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 24c | 639$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…36a5backed Yes | 51c | 628.15$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked No | 50c | 627.51$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 76c | 611$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 79c | 588$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 78c | 576$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 35c | 572.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 514.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 22c | 510$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 76c | 508$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 27c | 486.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 21c | 486$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 475.1$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 76c | 475$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 22c | 475$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes | 22c | 418$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 79c | 418$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 406.91$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…776abacked No | 55c | 394.76$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 40c | 383.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4078…a7f7backed No | 72c | 381.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 28c | 378.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed No | 78c | 367$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes | 21c | 365$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 29c | 363.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 76c | 363$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…a4c0backed No | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…c0f1backed Yes | 53c | 343.49$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 76c | 341$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5967…750dbacked Yes | 33c | 303.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 288.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…bc81backed No | 54c | 285.06$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 76c | 259$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 78c | 244$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked No | 40c | 229.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…6816backed No | 71c | 229$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 21c | 229$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 49c | 212.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 79c | 199$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…a1b3backed No | 62c | 193.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac41…5a10backed No | 72c | 182.58$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7a14backed No | 56c | 179.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558a…0a8bbacked No | 72c | 177$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 55c | 175.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 21c | 175$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 172.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 17c | 171.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…599ebacked Yes | 30c | 169.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 59c | 157$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…df1dbacked No | 74c | 153.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 150.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 56c | 149.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…fb3cbacked No | 72c | 146$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 70c | 143.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…72f5backed No | 46c | 130.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe7…e872backed Yes | 54c | 130.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 78c | 127.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 24c | 127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked Yes | 18c | 124.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 41c | 124$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked No | 62c | 116.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.