Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65da41612f3b0c078c807dd0432312b68f49832de8e768695c2d5fc3f03539ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 4,804$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.25 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 16c | 1,807$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…8763backed Yes | 16c | 1,258$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 3c | 1,210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…c655backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…818cbacked No | 77c | 681.74$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 18c | 614.14$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 516$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 70c | 433$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 345.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 335.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 16c | 322.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +566.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed No | 68c | 255.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 240.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 70c | 240$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 26c | 220$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…4decbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 130.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 20c | 105.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 104.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 19c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 16c | 72.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 80c | 56.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…72f5backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542b…f11fbacked No | 70c | 40.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…ab66backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd1…ee93backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…58aabacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.