TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfa71…9767

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.09
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.65
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.42
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$18.48
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+566.7%+$113.05
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$66.44
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+426.3%+$494.1
Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$92.8
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.98
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$255.29
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$22.23
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+25%+$21.2
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$566.64
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+37%+$59.13
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$59.85
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+43.9%+$144.58
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$284.24
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$7.59
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+100%+$84
Will "Rental Family" score at least 87 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+74.2%+$32.8
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.36
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$38.18
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.31
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.55
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.16
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+300%+$63.75
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$11.69
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.44
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.53
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$76.3
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.52
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.29
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.64
Will the Brooklyn Nets have the worst record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$68.02
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.08
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$19.24
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$55.68
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+69.5%+$116.85
Will CJ McCollum be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+376.2%+$248.06
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25.4%+$30.55
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$442.25
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$11.25
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+340.4%+$852.57
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$9.66
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$37.68
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$16.34
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+37.8%+$15.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+42.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick22cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+75.4%+$317.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+34.5%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+27.6%+$13.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$147.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.