Weather · resolved market
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a132d561049f110c65b7317f2099d6879729bd58066de38fc5461b48cc07090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $278,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 34c | 7,071$2,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,654.95 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 9c | 4,679$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.88 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 70c | 3,973$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 9c | 3,835$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,493.74 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 20c | 3,131$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +460.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 22c | 3,056$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 15c | 2,635$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,591$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…f753backed No | 22c | 2,546$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 16c | 2,539$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…5a3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +450%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 13c | 1,843$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,714$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,527$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,417$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.36 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,407$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 14c | 1,279$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes | 13c | 1,238$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +653.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,137$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,116$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,106$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 23c | 1,103$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 46c | 1,090$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 77c | 1,067$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 76c | 1,057$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed Yes | 12c | 1,040$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,025$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 22c | 1,015$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 15c | 993$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 11c | 987.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 54c | 973$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes | 22c | 945$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 13c | 926$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 20c | 911$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 78c | 887$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 78c | 876$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 14c | 873$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 78c | 872$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 22c | 857$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 54c | 855$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 13c | 855$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 65c | 845.42$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.29 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 13c | 845$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 7c | 840$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +566.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 17c | 837$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.92 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 55c | 828.19$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.01 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 14c | 817$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 23c | 816$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 23c | 812$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 46c | 811$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked Yes | 22c | 810$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 13c | 793$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 779.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked Yes | 22c | 778$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 19c | 777$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 77c | 767$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 78c | 754$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 34c | 744$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 738$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dc…0b72backed Yes | 27c | 737.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +268.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 64c | 734$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 46c | 731.74$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.68 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 78c | 726$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes | 23c | 719$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 13c | 719$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 710.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.43 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 77c | 698$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 77c | 696$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…624fbacked Yes | 63c | 690$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 13c | 683$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 78c | 666$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 17c | 665$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 13c | 661$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 659.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.37 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 78c | 654$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 23c | 654$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 13c | 604$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 22c | 592$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 16c | 590$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 79c | 583$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 12c | 581$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 573.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 77c | 563$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 12c | 562$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 24c | 555$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 76c | 549$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 78c | 546$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 77c | 546$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 15c | 545$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 49c | 540.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 79c | 534$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.77 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 78c | 525$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 13c | 522$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 78c | 514$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 78c | 513$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 17c | 510$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…09b6backed Yes | 20c | 500.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +160.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?this page
- Will 1600 to 1649 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1650 to 1699 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1700 to 1749 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1750 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.