TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xffff…35be

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$397.76
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.53
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.8
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$171.36
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.19
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.01
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.13
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.07
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.5
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.2
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.6
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.1
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$47.4
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$261.56
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$258.46
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$113.46
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+455.6%+$128.74
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.75
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$300.76
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.04
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$461Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.73
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$237.88
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$244.53
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$151.62
Will Severance win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$31.86
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+29.9%+$9.89
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+261.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+93%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$697
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$755Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+38.9%+$293.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Acesbacked Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.