Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x667b6e62351dc8f54f40ec918ae4256dcca35b30bae89940e862b5f47789977a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,215 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,143$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…9b67backed No | 14c | 1,031$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 71c | 997$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 11c | 957$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 71c | 947$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 29c | 926$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 71c | 908$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 29c | 892$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 29c | 880$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +55%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 71c | 863$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 9c | 812$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 71c | 793$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 9c | 784$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 9c | 768$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 9c | 766$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…f9d8backed No | 11c | 710.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 29c | 641$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 71c | 641$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 29c | 625$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 29c | 620$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 29c | 565$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 11c | 490.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed No | 13c | 431.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 12c | 427.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 28c | 398$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 75c | 393.37$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 28c | 377$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 28c | 368$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 9c | 334.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 72c | 172$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 28c | 171$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…06fbbacked Yes | 76c | 169.58$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a53…ae91backed No | 24c | 169.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed Yes | 72c | 154$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 31c | 145.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…1871backed Yes | 76c | 131.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…6e90backed No | 16c | 111.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 96.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 15c | 87.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 64.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 45c | 49.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5281backed No | 24c | 42.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…8e56backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 74c | 34.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.