Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab41509d4120bce16b0001cb87388080a24f9be09363e1c0f83cc33b4a50a9fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,714 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde24…25a8backed No | 0c | 20,103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d5…1374backed No | 1c | 3,139$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 71c | 2,139$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 38c | 1,498$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 5c | 1,047$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 1,004$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 62c | 988$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked No | 11c | 940.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 3c | 821.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 38c | 739$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 29c | 726$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 29c | 710$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 29c | 703$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 10c | 694$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 10c | 661$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 16c | 523$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 16c | 513$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 4c | 452.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 16c | 308$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 261.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 195.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 192.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…020bbacked No | 15c | 169.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…0e73backed No | 14c | 146.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…e414backed No | 14c | 138.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 118.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 10c | 99.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…6e90backed No | 19c | 65.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 76c | 26.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 17.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.