Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308790424d275010c12fcc152f1f58d811a77b67f212dc54b86e29c9de0cf473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b6f…bdfdbacked No | 3c | 7,319$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,041$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…79dbbacked No | 3c | 2,381$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed No | 29c | 1,956$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 71c | 1,844$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…9b67backed No | 2c | 1,325$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,243$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 58c | 1,146$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed No | 49c | 926$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 51c | 926$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 13c | 856$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 13c | 816$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 13c | 787$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 72c | 636$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 2c | 620.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 42c | 588$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 42c | 558$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 35c | 427$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed No | 18c | 422$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…791cbacked No | 20c | 417.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…7f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 417.45$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 35c | 412$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 18c | 404$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 35c | 404$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 369.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…ec1dbacked No | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…fe71backed No | 28c | 245$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 28c | 229$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 212.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…306bbacked No | 10c | 209.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 7c | 209.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…d4fcbacked No | 10c | 151.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2e…2020backed No | 8c | 127.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 123.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 71c | 112$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…6e90backed No | 19c | 56.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…8e56backed No | 30c | 33.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 70c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…b524backed Yes | 77c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.