Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf4c41305572af5915870ae6049f210dec5a07ff4413908c6f5e23d89bddedf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,453 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 15c | 679$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 15c | 664$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 15c | 640$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed No | 37c | 536$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 63c | 536$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +92%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed No | 33c | 450.49$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 74c | 391.18$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked No | 30c | 351$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad07…5f64backed No | 29c | 348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 70c | 300.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…9649backed No | 18c | 278.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…2defbacked No | 40c | 251.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca1…d96bbacked Yes | 79c | 192.02$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed No | 26c | 155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 62c | 130$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 79c | 126.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 75c | 106.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 20c | 99.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 70c | 94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 64c | 86.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…fc13backed No | 24c | 84.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 59c | 78.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 23c | 69.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 61c | 68.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 25c | 60.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bcd1backed Yes | 78c | 51.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed Yes | 69c | 48.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 65c | 46.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 44.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7636…1e6abacked No | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 78c | 38.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…c071backed Yes | 77c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…43ebbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…f846backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +134.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 76c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 75c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.