Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a687fc5544ab6c78dd4f5434136f65166d689973cffce8223af903ca6137f59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,448 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x074a…c97fbacked No | 1c | 10,335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 28c | 1,314$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked No | 16c | 1,266$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 1,068$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 75c | 999.99$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 69c | 816$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 31c | 816$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 782.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…13e6backed No | 21c | 728.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 72c | 601$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed Yes | 72c | 523$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 453.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 72c | 413$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed Yes | 72c | 297$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No | 28c | 223$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 9c | 199.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 199.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 78c | 169.35$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 39c | 166.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 28c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…f7abbacked No | 17c | 150.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 54c | 145.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 28c | 145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 12c | 128.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed No | 15c | 125.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 120.73$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad1…fa43backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 11c | 119.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 19c | 117.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +79%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 19c | 86.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…8cb1backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 80c | 73.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 16c | 64.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 62.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…2216backed No | 20c | 61.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…734fbacked No | 19c | 52.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…65d8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…3576backed Yes | 80c | 43.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…c238backed No | 45c | 29.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7c…b561backed Yes | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.