Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422fe0c48a18940d3e1a57b07d9908989549ad2b8b3e3f3a3689f23e949a2cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed No | 23c | 859.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 24c | 695$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 76c | 662$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 75c | 396.64$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebe…c10fbacked No | 11c | 337$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 80c | 107.79$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 14c | 97.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 78c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 19c | 65.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 62c | 58.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad1…fa43backed No | 20c | 56.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…abebbacked No | 20c | 55.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…8e56backed No | 19c | 52.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 79c | 35.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 80c | 34.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 72c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 78c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.