Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ba29263d54b15c2588c839149b7015686eccc35ad980bd04323405c3e20b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,215 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff8b…a251backed No | 1c | 13,056$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 0c | 6,767$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked No | 6c | 4,447$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 0c | 4,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 0c | 2,487$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…9d27backed No | 1c | 2,210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc64…c865backed No | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 1c | 2,133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f4…0f4abacked No | 2c | 1,925$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…75dcbacked No | 1c | 1,828$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 1c | 1,578$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad4…83b8backed No | 1c | 979.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…d991backed No | 41c | 955.86$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 4c | 575$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +14.7wins | +0.30per pick | 19cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 74c | 506.22$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 499.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 485.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 383.97$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 50c | 338.21$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 68c | 291.4$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.92 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 276$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked No | 40c | 247.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…f30dbacked No | 43c | 235.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…2defbacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…8594backed No | 44c | 228.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed No | 45c | 222.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 25c | 220.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed No | 8c | 217.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 56c | 204.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 171.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 58c | 149.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c5…2230backed Yes | 69c | 145.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…0e51backed No | 43c | 137.07$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…9649backed No | 40c | 126.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf4…62f6backed No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…07b8backed No | 40c | 100.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…60a9backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1d…7725backed No | 42c | 88.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed No | 38c | 82.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 67c | 74.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 74.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed Yes | 63c | 69.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 58c | 65.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3515backed No | 42c | 58.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe4…ee11backed No | 44c | 45.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 65c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…82a6backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 60c | 39.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7864…d76ebacked No | 39c | 38.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 37.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 76c | 37.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…bda7backed No | 43c | 34.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…eb40backed No | 41c | 32.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…0c72backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +321.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 71c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed Yes | 57c | 25.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a3…52dbbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…c071backed Yes | 74c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 16, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.