TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe5dc…35f9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
205
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: CS2, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$722.4
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$39.79
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$27.29
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,968Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,968.23
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$58.21
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,933.63
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,009Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$614.63
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$244.22
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$799.92
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$81.86
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$73.26
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$70.89
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+103%+$682.61
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+88%+$559.74
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,407Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$1,815.11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$106.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,666Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,666.48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$4,851Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,850.55
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.6
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.66
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$759Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$758.7
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$607Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$303.92
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT3040%12 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+58%+$73.4
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.01
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$160.37
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.57
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,075.01
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.66
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$44.28
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,573Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$637.25
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.92
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$790.18
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.8
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$736.59
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,399.6
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$819Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$378.79
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,913Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$773.63
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.85
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+158.2%+$84.66
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$7,492Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,492.05
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,944Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+44%+$854.69
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Dan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$864.37
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,176.85
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$988Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+207.6%+$2,049.91
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$32.19
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,492Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,491.69
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,991Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,990.96
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.33
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.29
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$175.52
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$9.73
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$206.46
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$867Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$867.45
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$450.66
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+159%+$181.74
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+84.9%+$334.82
Judge issues restraining order to block Trump's funding freeze by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.6
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$8,677Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+63.4%+$5,503.13
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by midnight?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$646Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$645.73
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$433.92
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.17
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.1
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+31.4%+$166.88
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$159.25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$166.54
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$309
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,580Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,579.77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,161Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$315.18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,127Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$649.84
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$793Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$475.55
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,485Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$529.49
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$27.84
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$299.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.47
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$33.3
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$206.88
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$156.48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$3,271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,270.74
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+46.1%+$36.06
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$266.4
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" or "Mineral" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$7,298Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,298.08
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$566.61
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,299Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,298.61
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$132.72
Will "Moana" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 44m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+26%+$90.77
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$425.96
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.28
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$314Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+64.3%+$201.87
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross less than $140m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+101.5%+$185.86
Will 'The Accountant 2' gross less than $25m on opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+190.6%+$121.07
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$374Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST-100%-$374.3
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+29.9%+$28.09
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.15
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+106.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weatherlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$859.74
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+63.9%+$43.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jersey Jerry complete the Immaculate Inning Challenge?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST+61.1%+$210.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,814Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,814.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.