TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9bd7…96d3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
155
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT8643%37 W · 49 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$20.4
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.6
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$44.18
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.59
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.96
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.7
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$45.13
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$9
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.6
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+132%+$37.82
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+429.3%+$82.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$48.1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+109.2%+$104.4
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.33
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.99
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.81
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$12.96
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.09
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.59
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$10
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+46.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+381.7%+$471.36
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.63
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win fewer than 40 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+201.2%+$33.4
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$68.59
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami finish with the second most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.23
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+59.4%+$155.56
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+40.6%+$45.11
Park Sung-jae in jail by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$11.47
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+76.3%+$137.01
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$51.2
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$48.07
<180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+88.8%+$89.44
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.03
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Jeff Bezos attend the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.44
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.62
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.18
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.77
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+369.1%+$95.99
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.25
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Norway vs. England: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$50.99
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$78
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$18.3
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$8.74
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-58.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+138.8%+$16.78
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20.2
Will Epstein Data Set 12 be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$206.7
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.95
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+31.6%+$15
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.67
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+348.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bogota: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Claveriebacked Lorenzo Claverie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+189.8%+$65.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Chess Championship 2024 Winnerbacked Ding · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$193.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.