Ukraine · resolved market
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032bea9bdb1cc6b3456b5f6b4589d600eda00fea105e9f028acd169fbd1aaf74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $485,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $509,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $485,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 189,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858a…af1abacked No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…60e5backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 5c | 19,110$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 10,613$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed No | 1c | 10,506$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…8c30backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed No | 1c | 8,949$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 7,574$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…3af8backed No | 6c | 5,517$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…22a3backed No | 2c | 3,492$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…7328backed No | 6c | 2,836$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 47c | 2,750$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 49c | 2,562$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.17 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 9c | 2,283$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 6c | 2,174$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35e…0188backed No | 7c | 2,100$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 1,881$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 6c | 1,631$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 8c | 1,626$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed No | 1c | 1,528$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 6c | 1,494$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 5c | 1,415$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 15c | 1,307$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e8babacked No | 15c | 1,293$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f69…3cafbacked No | 48c | 1,256$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 11c | 1,246$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…a9debacked No | 1c | 1,238$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,116$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…4aa3backed No | 5c | 1,083$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked No | 8c | 1,080$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 59c | 1,029$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 40c | 1,020$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.82 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…61eabacked No | 47c | 1,000$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 2c | 981.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…0f73backed No | 6c | 900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 2c | 842.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 4c | 833.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ab0bbacked No | 7c | 812.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 4c | 781.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 44c | 778.42$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked Yes | 65c | 767.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 59c | 668.09$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.44 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 47c | 633.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 20c | 610$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 58c | 597.03$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +92%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 76c | 594.81$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.43 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d3…e32bbacked No | 2c | 588.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 7c | 558.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 557.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…0b92backed No | 9c | 549.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…5c83backed No | 5c | 546.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 524.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…7664backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 6c | 499.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +430.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 6c | 485.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed No | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed No | 6c | 435.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 7c | 431.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…6b8cbacked No | 7c | 420$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 53c | 416.24$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd90…8c0bbacked No | 60c | 399.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 60c | 395.55$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 4c | 354.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 58c | 343$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 7c | 328.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 69c | 305.93$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed No | 4c | 287.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 19c | 285.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 35c | 280.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…7149backed No | 6c | 267.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 4c | 265$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 43c | 258.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 41c | 257.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed No | 5c | 254.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…f72bbacked No | 16c | 252.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed No | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…aa1abacked No | 63c | 239.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 39c | 233.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 21c | 232$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 32c | 224.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…0e9fbacked No | 7c | 217.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 38c | 215.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…c3b3backed No | 6c | 202.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 36c | 198.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 42c | 197.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?this page
- NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.