TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf26c…ebe5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Earnings, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Earnings at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+592.4%+$118.49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,262Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+123%+$1,551.97
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$539.14
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+78.4%+$78.37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.23
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,162Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$1,641.95
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.93
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.08
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+110%+$419
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.2
All 15 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Wintrust (WTFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Domino's Pizza (DPZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$62.51
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$452Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+365.5%+$1,653.74
Will Mercantile Bank (MBWM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.04
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$165
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+91.7%+$536.87
Will Lululemon Athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.9
Will Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.73
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+40.9%+$35.7
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFLlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Raiders vs. Texansbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+400%+$400
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Manziel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$202.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon reach $244 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.