Earnings · resolved market
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeac04beeb67ec4844d38d5cc2875a81208f26347d7d281472081eff4fccb38e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 74c | 3,158$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.4 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed No | 71c | 2,418$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…5443backed Yes | 13c | 1,912$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 62c | 1,300$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 52c | 840$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 23c | 818.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.57 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 15c | 802.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 55c | 730$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 32c | 663.12$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.28 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 562.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 19c | 496.57$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed No | 48c | 450.04$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 11c | 377.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 15c | 364.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…0454backed Yes | 17c | 357.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 297.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed No | 80c | 251.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 79c | 205$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 36c | 197.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 24c | 195.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes | 12c | 192.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 158.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 33c | 120.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed No | 71c | 119.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…0bf8backed Yes | 13c | 118.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5280backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 32c | 96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 30c | 92.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 41c | 89.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…972dbacked No | 67c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 45c | 73.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 17c | 73.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080c…130cbacked No | 21c | 68.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 41.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…7601backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked No | 33c | 36.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed Yes | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…0d9ebacked Yes | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 31.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 53c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 24.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.