TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e88…301cbacked No74c3,158$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.447138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes19c3,000$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5753228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x701e…9013backed No71c2,418$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.312138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…5443backed Yes13c1,912$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes62c1,300$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.91968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No52c840$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.843100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No23c818.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.575719.3%11 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes15c802.89$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12334437.2%128 W · 216 L+22.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2455…a70fbacked Yes55c730$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.53287.5%28 W · 4 L+12.8wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+94.9%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No32c663.12$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.2835635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes31c562.4$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.111921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes19c496.57$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.961361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4992…9cd4backed No48c450.04$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ae…ae32backed Yes11c377.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.310721.5%23 W · 84 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid0%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes15c364.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5830315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc6…0454backed Yes17c357.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes16c297.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.696927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed No80c251.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b5…b465backed No79c205$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15867442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142512%3 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+113.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes36c197.24$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8910740.2%43 W · 64 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes24c195.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.353122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16cb…7edbbacked Yes12c192.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c158.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.429024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26c…ebe5backed No71c123$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes33c120.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08f8…0e43backed No71c119.79$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.743240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e7e…0bf8backed Yes13c118.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196914.5%10 W · 59 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-62%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724546.7%21 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-65.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6f…06c4backed No32c96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed Yes30c92.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5317441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1e…8213backed No41c89.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.864829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes24c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.425125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7463…972dbacked No67c74$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.69757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-23.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No45c73.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ee…26babacked Yes17c73.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.854746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked No29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.97728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080c…130cbacked No21c68.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.141315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed Yes33c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes27c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.773116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes26c41.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.872055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cf…7601backed No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…a3adbacked No33c36.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed Yes36c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…0d9ebacked Yes59c34.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2526…9f68backed No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No76c31.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed No53c27.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes58c24.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61764.7%11 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe0…192abacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.