UFC · resolved market
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712443b478693f9d83e33880ed93f3cc09e1df044efddbc8d89220d72d0abcac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85ee…f4dfbacked Yes | 49c | 226.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 50c | 189.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 112.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 41c | 88.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…6871backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…400fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d5…8410backed Yes | 51c | 49.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 48.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…964abacked Yes | 46c | 43.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 38c | 37.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 52c | 31.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2e…94bbbacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…d64ebacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…99d0backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 20.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69e…85c2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250?this page
- Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250?Yes won
- Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.