UFC · resolved market
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe657b2ee820a97550caa0021860cc63c7cde5425c5854ce0b54d1ad898ed4ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 76c | 562.73$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…04c8backed No | 59c | 535.33$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 36c | 483.88$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 23c | 417.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…fcdfbacked Yes | 40c | 326.08$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…bd9dbacked Yes | 4c | 260.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,509.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 57c | 180.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 79c | 170.07$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +203.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d82…c5a7backed No | 45c | 135.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f1bbbacked No | 46c | 98.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 46c | 63.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 22c | 60.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed Yes | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…6871backed Yes | 63c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…2dcfbacked Yes | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250?this page
- Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250?Yes won
- Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UFC 250?No won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.