TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UFC 250?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,855 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes31c434.43$133 inLost-$132.7460%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1df…309dbacked No68c220.19$151 inWon+$69.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No69c150$104 inWon+$46.51947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes27c120.3$32 inLost-$32.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa75d…a825backed Yes46c87.78$40 inLost-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No56c67.63$38 inWon+$30.041172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+69.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No69c48$33 inWon+$14.886046.7%28 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes44c45.33$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea4…f403backed Yes44c45$20 inLost-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8919…d64ebacked No69c43.44$30 inWon+$13.474100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost-$15.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No56c35$20 inWon+$15.44454.5%24 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No62c24.63$15 inWon+$9.3620952.6%110 W · 99 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.