TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3732…43acbacked Yes75c14,897$11,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,691.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+128.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed No23c3,318$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.711323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No9c2,272$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.861650%8 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No24c1,833$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.89115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No22c1,636$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.97462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No25c1,148$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.221936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No26c1,063$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+61.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No17c1,028$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.371024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No28c918.93$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.294942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked No32c867.98$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2741421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed No30c742.89$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No32c675.5$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No27c669.11$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.282927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No6c658.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.17714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No28c636.7$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No35c631.23$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5630837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60b4…ab54backed Yes54c538.85$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No26c532.74$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.453680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x502a…b028backed Yes56c531.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa39c…08bcbacked No31c499.55$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes66c493.41$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c483.62$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.895327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a55…6ce4backed No26c468.35$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No43c462.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.526835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No27c390.72$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.652321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa089…02a1backed Yes66c352.52$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes55c322.49$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.431323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No25c321.8$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.022313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c1…26a6backed No30c298.17$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked No42c290.78$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.326437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…3528backed No31c287.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes72c273.97$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.971353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382a…b590backed No26c262.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes76c261.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.589962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c253.76$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdcf…73d8backed Yes75c210.27$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68f6…f3d6backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked No43c199.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes67c198.11$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.931650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc7…e039backed No39c187.03$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.041361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No36c169.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed No35c168.39$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed No24c164.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+196.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No36c163$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.271060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc948…33a1backed Yes62c161.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab79…f2edbacked No28c161.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.331850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked No45c150.05$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed No29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes55c132.4$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5811225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250a…22fabacked Yes76c131.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No27c128.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No14c128.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.051822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes62c125.67$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.553737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1962…47b5backed Yes64c124.21$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+130.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81a…8a17backed Yes47c123.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5c…aadfbacked No33c122$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c8…ee9dbacked No35c114.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No15c113.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e9b…086dbacked Yes57c111.59$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+374.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d43…170cbacked No46c108.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204d…536fbacked No47c105.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db3…c36abacked No34c105.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed No36c103.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+185.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3021…3b3dbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4455…99f2backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb128…ed0dbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b76…6984backed No15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d20…7d0fbacked No49c95.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…68b5backed Yes79c94.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.051323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes63c92.85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No13c87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48a6…2c94backed No18c85.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9af2…1215backed Yes57c84.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ef…1401backed No32c79.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No24c78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes60c77.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8713128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No53c74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a1…ddbcbacked Yes60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked No23c66.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c63.82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb6c…1838backed Yes48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+136.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No23c61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No58c60.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked No18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes53c58.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No34c56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1533…fc9bbacked No53c55.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc21…b185backed No45c54.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes73c54.02$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c52.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7911840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked No33c52.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5040…96cfbacked No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c87…967abacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes46c49.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+43.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x163f…4af3backed Yes61c49.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No36c48.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.629416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x52d5…be20backed No27c48.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.