Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b678c76d7516d7fe01ffbe7a69a5fdedfefbb389891ad8e907d9d8ceb008038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 23c | 21,615$4,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,751.76 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 14,700$6,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,224.46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 73c | 13,712$10,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 76c | 11,514$8,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,771.29 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 11,110$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,661.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 8,487$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 14c | 7,372$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,353.55 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 29c | 5,731$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.25 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,459$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.08 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 78c | 4,755$3,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 69c | 3,792$2,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 25c | 3,675$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.41 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked No | 15c | 3,595$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.62 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 3,100$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400.6 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 3,021$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.07 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 22c | 2,871$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.58 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…2698backed No | 38c | 2,657$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 33c | 2,519$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…367ebacked No | 17c | 2,512$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed No | 45c | 2,301$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.41 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 21c | 2,258$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.56 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 29c | 2,139$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 49c | 2,117$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.36 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 3c | 2,051$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 74c | 2,026$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.07 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 1c | 2,006$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked No | 24c | 1,944$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…74dabacked Yes | 78c | 1,869$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 1,868$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.08 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 33c | 1,801$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.93 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 33c | 1,716$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.37 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked No | 24c | 1,607$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.37 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 35c | 1,483$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.74 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 4c | 1,430$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 11c | 1,400$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 33c | 1,300$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.56 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…9002backed No | 33c | 1,300$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 19c | 1,291$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.34 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 10c | 1,272$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes | 69c | 1,247$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,046$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked No | 35c | 1,005$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.2 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.93 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked No | 22c | 999.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…ce76backed Yes | 76c | 999.98$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 22c | 989.34$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 75c | 972.32$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.1 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 43c | 968.38$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.34 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…f0b3backed No | 34c | 864.7$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 61c | 822.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 41c | 818.34$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 5c | 800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x503c…4574backed Yes | 78c | 772.24$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 20c | 726.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.53 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 38c | 705.14$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.22 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 10c | 699$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.57 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked No | 5c | 697.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked Yes | 11c | 653.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.85 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 30c | 648$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.32 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…e6a2backed No | 37c | 637.05$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed No | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 71c | 565.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 24c | 558.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 550.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ba…5b5ebacked No | 23c | 525$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 76c | 498.56$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.51 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 65c | 449.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177d…0867backed Yes | 11c | 439.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…8bb5backed Yes | 63c | 422.55$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +102%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…5bb9backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 52c | 383.23$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 380.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.95 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 41c | 379.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.51 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 370$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.6 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 368$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 357.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 10c | 348.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.01 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.9wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 31c | 342.2$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 20c | 335.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed No | 35c | 333.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 37c | 329.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.61 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…6d78backed Yes | 13c | 314$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…da2bbacked Yes | 12c | 297$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…ebe5backed No | 35c | 288.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 68c | 280$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 62c | 279.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…8a6abacked Yes | 10c | 273.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +378%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 11c | 272.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 45c | 271.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 40c | 269.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…14c8backed Yes | 13c | 268$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +354.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed No | 25c | 249.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…98d5backed No | 41c | 246.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked No | 28c | 244$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 114 | 32.5%37 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…2a4fbacked Yes | 35c | 242.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.