Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310d42c67367a966ecff3b6c9581b829ed09fd7c6f65848bb1d81872411a8ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a9…ec4fbacked No | 0c | 4,540$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +1,142.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 3,816$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.86 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 74c | 1,145$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.09 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 946.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 7c | 792.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 774.86$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.49 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 683.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 27c | 650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 595.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 536$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 13c | 502.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 19c | 429.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 70c | 354.19$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 75c | 349.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 231$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 27c | 185.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 9c | 176.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a39…14c8backed Yes | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +354.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a93…5574backed Yes | 63c | 105.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 71c | 91.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 78c | 88.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +241.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 70c | 35.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…847bbacked No | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 58c | 19.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.