TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,497 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c6,156$4,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,327.3864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes24c5,729$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.8744224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes53c3,846$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,792.352729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No1c3,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes26c2,214$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.5610141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No49c2,167$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.1936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No73c1,824$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.165532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes64c1,751$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.935433.3%18 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8d4…8bf8backed Yes40c1,385$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes28c1,302$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.41822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes28c1,246$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.855523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c1,211$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.8428827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a7…f655backed Yes28c1,200$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No73c1,200$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8761540%6 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-39.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c1,128$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.1158927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c1,021$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.2467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes19c1,003$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.6410928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No22c908$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7615625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes25c900$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No73c879.66$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.75259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed Yes51c860.66$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.013534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes70c789.24$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.2419739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No71c677$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.675954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No19c643.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0611436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No14c622.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2311633.6%39 W · 77 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed Yes47c606.99$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.645952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33be…adc8backed Yes77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1382321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf26e…cf82backed No72c600$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick67cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes40c594.3$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.552445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No35c592.58$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.851625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No65c552.47$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.226526.2%17 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe879…6d22backed No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3756653%35 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes73c499.78$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.714845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+41.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No43c495.79$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5985725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes25c466.74$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.8816526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No71c457.93$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7121751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No71c444.14$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.347241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe9…4829backed No24c439$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes44c415.4$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9334143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed No9c400$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28817359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe72d…6424backed Yes32c361.15$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.08520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes75c327.43$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.866454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes51c316.77$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.774835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5449023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75f…75fbbacked No69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed No71c299.99$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No15c293$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.154425%11 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No15c266.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3621537.7%81 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed No36c249.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.835639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb23e…829abacked No16c245.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No73c241.1$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1765450%27 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f2b…a201backed No32c237.93$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-83.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d6…303abacked No30c232.43$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed No20c229.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.83030%9 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No14c218.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4513022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No67c218$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.55527.3%15 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd0db…b117backed No72c210$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.2850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No15c205.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7615347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14211040%44 W · 66 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15210747.7%51 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1461145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1422751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…5e5fbacked No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe487…7fdbbacked No16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…2a4fbacked No20c199$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca97…5409backed No13c196.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0315238.2%58 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed No35c190$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.66753.7%36 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c165.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No59c144$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8118135.9%65 W · 116 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d94…eb52backed Yes34c140.01$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No23c139.85$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.595632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No71c135.39$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.13944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed No72c130.51$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.565435.2%19 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes28c124.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No71c123$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.335354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf932…00a1backed Yes41c121.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c115$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d73…4598backed No18c112.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202524%6 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes30c109.53$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1621726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes47c101$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.54862.5%30 W · 18 L+7.6wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb994…5bb9backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ef7…b416backed No22c82.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No72c80$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.23026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b96…2429backed Yes41c73.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2721…cf8abacked No15c70.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64459.1%26 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+37.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked No75c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No73c57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.614168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No73c57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.616553.8%35 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x083f…a55fbacked No20c50.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107335.6%26 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397856.4%44 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa36b…f273backed No71c49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd47…c395backed Yes23c48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+127.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.