Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0efbce22663357ccf4bda7c57b5418a82f2123a89d116be5b6f13947b51bbb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 6,156$4,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,327.38 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 24c | 5,729$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,367.87 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 53c | 3,846$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 1c | 3,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,214$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.56 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 49c | 2,167$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.19 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 73c | 1,824$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 64c | 1,751$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.93 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…8bf8backed Yes | 40c | 1,385$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…c5b6backed Yes | 28c | 1,302$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,246$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.85 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 1,211$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.84 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…f655backed Yes | 28c | 1,200$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 73c | 1,200$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 1,128$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 1,021$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.24 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,003$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.64 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 908$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Yes | 25c | 900$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 73c | 879.66$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.7 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 51c | 860.66$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.01 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 789.24$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 71c | 677$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.67 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 19c | 643.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 14c | 622.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 47c | 606.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed No | 72c | 600$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 40c | 594.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 35c | 592.58$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 65c | 552.47$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.22 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 73c | 499.78$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 495.79$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.59 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 25c | 466.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.88 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 71c | 457.93$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 444.14$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.34 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…4829backed No | 24c | 439$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 44c | 415.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.93 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…6424backed Yes | 32c | 361.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 75c | 327.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 51c | 316.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.77 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…75fbbacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 293$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 15c | 266.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 36c | 249.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 16c | 245.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 73c | 241.1$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed No | 32c | 237.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…303abacked No | 30c | 232.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed No | 20c | 229.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 14c | 218.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 67c | 218$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…b117backed No | 72c | 210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 205.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…7fdbbacked No | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…2a4fbacked No | 20c | 199$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 13c | 196.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 35c | 190$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 165.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 59c | 144$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…eb52backed Yes | 34c | 140.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 23c | 139.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 71c | 135.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 72c | 130.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 28c | 124.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 71c | 123$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf932…00a1backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d73…4598backed No | 18c | 112.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 109.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 47c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…5bb9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…b416backed No | 22c | 82.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b96…2429backed Yes | 41c | 73.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked No | 15c | 70.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 73c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 20c | 50.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…f273backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.