TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,956

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x97ea…3363backed Yes61c6,622$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.9711859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes77c5,157$3,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.92729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82c9…36fcbacked No41c4,680$1,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.794332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked No6c2,414$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.633917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c1,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9215625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No24c1,420$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.9421751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c1,364$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c1,316$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7519739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No10c1,254$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6411436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f2b…a201backed No12c1,212$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-83.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No10c797.09$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No10c748.26$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No13c708.25$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.675952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No38c619.68$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.521726.7%58 W · 159 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d99…4ca3backed No46c540.85$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.792245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c537.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.441,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No19c432.4$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4785725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed No28c409.33$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.365435.2%19 W · 35 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed No12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes54c385.87$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.541323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No47c378.72$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17829653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No7c371.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264425%11 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No47c334.68$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.95354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No9c301.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed No22c299.98$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.996753.7%36 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked Yes29c275.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5510928.4%31 W · 78 L-15.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No14c264.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.135632.1%18 W · 38 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c264$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0b…b8b2backed No57c250$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1423941%16 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8d4…8bf8backed Yes59c238.23$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes42c211.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9119639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…c7bdbacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147856.4%44 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0551…3d39backed No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe487…7fdbbacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea25…2a4fbacked No52c178.72$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed No10c167.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No9c166.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5615347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f9…c755backed Yes75c166.62$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c161.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9528827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No42c159.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.28744.8%39 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+101.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No18c154$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.39475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+158.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x639e…4ee9backed Yes53c127.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes52c126.68$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.811540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…153bbacked Yes45c121.04$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes50c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.65442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes40c119.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8339621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes61c94.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2911854.2%64 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa429…368abacked No60c84.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65646.4%26 W · 30 L-11.4wins-0.20per pick67cpaid-34.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed No73c80$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.65530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+48.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58a…5448backed No20c66.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes60c62.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.62875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+130.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c60.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8736035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No62c60.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.422250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.92070%14 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26e…cf82backed No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.38per pick67cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2092…a752backed No71c60$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa810…854dbacked Yes43c58.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No53c55.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.491010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-80.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x509d…0799backed No56c50.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd7…96d3backed No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118643%37 W · 49 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+17.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…c14bbacked Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba3…9172backed No51c39.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-64.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed No47c36.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.493534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2511040%44 W · 66 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.257241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…0998backed No60c33.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ac0…28ebbacked Yes52c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc43…810dbacked Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+143.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes40c30.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3917359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x493c…6c24backed Yes54c28.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No56c25.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No53c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7818640.9%76 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a52…a10dbacked No58c22.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.65345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e7…6065backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x59a1…94b4backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.417129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe19…ec9fbacked No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.