Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6157c8edd6f1d1c789bd75aa70730d6f14fd726aea50354609677c562b351d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 15c | 2,822$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.63 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,353$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 751$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 16c | 389.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 344.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 35c | 251.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 18c | 238$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 14c | 190.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 13c | 113.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 65c | 78.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 66.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 36c | 50.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 36c | 36.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…847bbacked No | 39c | 32.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.