TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe72…f18c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
416
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT17359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 173 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$299.19
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,115Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,114.67
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,121Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,120.84
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+304.9%+$225.9
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.29
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.4
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$333.99
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.39
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+207.3%+$191.75
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$88
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.6
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+135.1%+$438.47
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$719Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+368.8%+$2,650.33
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+99.4%+$99.68
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$79.5
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+300%+$149.99
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+118%+$70.9
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$55
Showing 25 of 173 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10938.5%42 W · 67 L-10.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 109 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.29
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+102%+$182.13
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+149.5%+$449.45
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+227.9%+$278
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$971Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+85.4%+$829.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+83.2%+$498.77
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$126
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490.1
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$572
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,242Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$1,526.28
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$739.68
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.81
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$840.05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$902Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$902.05
Showing 25 of 109 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT5058%29 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
Will Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.5
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+138.5%+$58.08
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$62.4
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.93
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$266
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+363.1%+$173.7
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$707.58
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$801Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+212.3%+$1,701.74
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$26.99
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$125
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$6,582Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+168.1%+$11,062.95
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,582Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+82.6%+$2,958.02
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$1,230.55
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$143.06
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,151Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$700.94
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$159.46
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$152.13
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+38%+$62
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$337.64
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.46
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.64
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.5
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.6
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$112.63
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.2%+$219.35
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+189.9%+$198.12
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$145.71
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$65.57
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$350.61
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,961Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+52.7%+$2,615.96
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24.63
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,591Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+50.6%+$804.44
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$115.85
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+302.3%+$450.85
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$509Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$508.75
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+37%+$48.6
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$26.67
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+58.2%+$188.6
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+29%+$64.55
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+37.9%+$75.87
All 22 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$27
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.97
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$228
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.99
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$32.9
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$134.47
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+104.1%+$102
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$48.3
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.38
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$78.49
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+40.2%+$32.52
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+126.9%+$145.72
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+63.2%+$135.51
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.94
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.89
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.2%+$43.79
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$12.3
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$88
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+116.8%+$90.68
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18.7
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$141.07
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69%+$125.35
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+468%+$57.68
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+113.4%+$175.39
Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$67.94
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$193.46
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+60.2%+$93.91
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$302
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+163.2%+$102.3
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.7%+$16.29
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.1
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$30.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$129.08
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.