Movies · resolved market
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66af911f31ceabb5f9a3ef9203a73f0b23d18aa81bbba7888dec440c622c2528
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,118,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,118,409 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,956 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Yes | 78c | 195,814$153,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,715.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…fb74backed No | 23c | 81,283$18,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,881.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 15c | 37,930$5,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,574.4 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 21c | 36,745$7,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,706.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 21c | 35,796$7,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,530.7 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Yes | 74c | 35,409$26,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,206.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 75c | 32,655$24,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,205.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 78c | 25,023$19,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,621.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 76c | 23,747$18,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,583.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 72c | 23,603$16,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,608.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…9511backed Yes | 78c | 23,260$18,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,203.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 20c | 23,204$4,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,618 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Yes | 75c | 22,471$16,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,617.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed No | 25c | 21,994$5,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,410.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 28c | 21,789$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…1830backed Yes | 78c | 21,577$16,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 74c | 21,462$15,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,583.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 23c | 21,436$4,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,901.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…77e1backed Yes | 75c | 21,116$15,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,302.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 75c | 20,000$14,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,020.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 69c | 19,458$13,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,116.34 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…bf8dbacked Yes | 73c | 19,314$14,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,134.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 78c | 17,747$13,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,932.79 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…c9bebacked No | 37c | 17,297$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,399.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 77c | 17,250$13,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,049.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…5d75backed No | 37c | 17,060$6,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,312.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 32c | 16,544$5,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,304.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…bf33backed No | 21c | 15,000$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,099.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 79c | 15,000$11,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 69c | 14,977$10,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,588.17 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f5…d93dbacked Yes | 67c | 14,680$9,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,787.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8036…b4c7backed No | 19c | 14,473$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Yes | 78c | 14,285$11,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,145.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 79c | 13,403$10,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,806.04 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb13e…cf76backed No | 37c | 13,300$4,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,921 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 79c | 12,727$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 70c | 12,634$8,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,819.32 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…551abacked Yes | 79c | 12,513$9,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 70c | 12,325$8,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.46 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…eacbbacked Yes | 78c | 12,019$9,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes | 61c | 11,973$7,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,712.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x405c…a51dbacked Yes | 63c | 11,865$7,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,390.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…7481backed Yes | 63c | 11,397$7,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,216.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 78c | 11,200$8,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…d7bdbacked Yes | 63c | 11,095$6,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 21c | 10,942$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,315.55 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…1e5dbacked Yes | 76c | 10,789$8,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,589.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 74c | 10,373$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,723.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…e4eabacked No | 28c | 10,050$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6431…ab69backed Yes | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…037ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25d…2227backed No | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…a9f2backed Yes | 76c | 9,828$7,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…59a1backed Yes | 69c | 9,522$6,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 76c | 9,466$7,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.67 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 9,425$6,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.65 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 13c | 8,920$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 77c | 8,777$6,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d79…ae69backed Yes | 74c | 8,681$6,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,260.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 8,395$6,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.33 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 78c | 8,300$6,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 26c | 8,234$2,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes | 75c | 8,075$6,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 21c | 8,020$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed No | 24c | 8,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 76c | 7,943$6,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 75c | 7,865$5,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.71 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…6b78backed Yes | 74c | 7,757$5,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe677…51a0backed Yes | 74c | 7,755$5,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4e…7a51backed Yes | 77c | 7,509$5,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…825abacked Yes | 75c | 7,400$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 74c | 7,397$5,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes | 75c | 7,358$5,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…986cbacked Yes | 77c | 7,299$5,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 75c | 7,091$5,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…689ebacked Yes | 63c | 7,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,590 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 6,991$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.17 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 74c | 6,758$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 77c | 6,740$5,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.4 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 23c | 6,700$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 23c | 6,450$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.75 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 78c | 6,344$4,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…73a1backed Yes | 63c | 6,300$3,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 74c | 6,294$4,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327a…99bfbacked Yes | 79c | 6,289$4,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 75c | 6,179$4,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 27c | 6,095$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 25c | 6,021$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.23 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 76c | 6,000$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 18c | 6,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 5,952$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.28 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…fe13backed Yes | 77c | 5,883$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes | 75c | 5,755$4,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 17c | 5,665$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 26c | 5,607$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.98 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…ff10backed Yes | 79c | 5,574$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d0…5a98backed Yes | 76c | 5,265$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…684bbacked Yes | 74c | 5,215$3,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 76c | 5,153$3,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.49 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 24c | 5,150$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.