TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,118,409

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,118,409 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,956 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd22…ad91backed Yes78c195,814$153,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,715.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…fb74backed No23c81,283$18,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,881.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No15c37,930$5,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.45612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No21c36,745$7,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,706.862445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No21c35,796$7,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,530.72222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yes74c35,409$26,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,206.49850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes75c32,655$24,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,205.912441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes78c25,023$19,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,621.272857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes76c23,747$18,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,583.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes72c23,603$16,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,608.962740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e57…9511backed Yes78c23,260$18,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,203.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No20c23,204$4,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,61829926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Yes75c22,471$16,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,617.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed No25c21,994$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,410.360%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No28c21,789$6,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,120.27728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fdc…1830backed Yes78c21,577$16,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,641.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes74c21,462$15,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,583.03812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-83.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef18…158bbacked No23c21,436$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,901.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…77e1backed Yes75c21,116$15,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,302.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes75c20,000$14,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,020.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes69c19,458$13,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,116.344544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f49…bf8dbacked Yes73c19,314$14,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,134.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes78c17,747$13,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,932.7917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0104…c9bebacked No37c17,297$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,399.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes77c17,250$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x513d…5d75backed No37c17,060$6,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,312.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No32c16,544$5,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,304.16128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ce…bf33backed No21c15,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes79c15,000$11,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes69c14,977$10,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,588.176520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f5…d93dbacked Yes67c14,680$9,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,787.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8036…b4c7backed No19c14,473$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Yes78c14,285$11,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,145.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes79c13,403$10,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,806.0416350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb13e…cf76backed No37c13,300$4,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,92110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes79c12,727$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes70c12,634$8,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,819.321711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-83.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68fc…551abacked Yes79c12,513$9,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes70c12,325$8,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,645.463938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f84…eacbbacked Yes78c12,019$9,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes61c11,973$7,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,712.151050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x405c…a51dbacked Yes63c11,865$7,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,390.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba3f…7481backed Yes63c11,397$7,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,216.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes78c11,200$8,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-40.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x454f…d7bdbacked Yes63c11,095$6,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,105.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No21c10,942$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.557931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ca…1e5dbacked Yes76c10,789$8,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes74c10,373$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd00e…e4eabacked No28c10,050$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,81410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6431…ab69backed Yes75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2516…037ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed No20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…a9f2backed Yes76c9,828$7,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65a3…59a1backed Yes69c9,522$6,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes76c9,466$7,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.672920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes74c9,425$6,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.655362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No13c8,920$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.61020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes77c8,777$6,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,026.461926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d79…ae69backed Yes74c8,681$6,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,260.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c8,395$6,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.3347328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes78c8,300$6,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No26c8,234$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,137.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes75c8,075$6,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.85540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No21c8,020$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68019440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed No24c8,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes76c7,943$6,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.461457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes75c7,865$5,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.7113150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b6f…6b78backed Yes74c7,757$5,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe677…51a0backed Yes74c7,755$5,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,016.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4e…7a51backed Yes77c7,509$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25bf…825abacked Yes75c7,400$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes74c7,397$5,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes75c7,358$5,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41b…986cbacked Yes77c7,299$5,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes75c7,091$5,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,772.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cf…689ebacked Yes63c7,000$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No25c6,991$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.1715641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes74c6,758$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes77c6,740$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.43568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No23c6,700$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5411414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No23c6,450$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.75248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed Yes78c6,344$4,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x369c…73a1backed Yes63c6,300$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes74c6,294$4,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.49850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x327a…99bfbacked Yes79c6,289$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes75c6,179$4,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.972437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No27c6,095$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No25c6,021$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.233910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked Yes76c6,000$4,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No18c6,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No21c5,952$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.2823041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17a…fe13backed Yes77c5,883$4,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ddd…372dbacked Yes75c5,755$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.73475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No17c5,665$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.44837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No26c5,607$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.983125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…ff10backed Yes79c5,574$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,170.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d0…5a98backed Yes76c5,265$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d15…684bbacked Yes74c5,215$3,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes76c5,153$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.493339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed No24c5,150$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.03714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.