Movies · resolved market
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd03775ae64ca4da06121fd75397e3a16cd54bd02a52faee8c22799e34b8458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,612,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,067,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,612,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 617,568$1,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 205,987$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.93 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 0c | 125,889$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…4a76backed Yes | 0c | 111,642$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes | 0c | 100,446$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 91,109$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 61,565$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 50,521$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 44,439$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 0c | 31,572$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 0c | 28,105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 0c | 28,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c5…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 24,390$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 23,331$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…71ccbacked Yes | 1c | 19,593$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…b96abacked Yes | 3c | 19,278$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…84fdbacked Yes | 0c | 17,518$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…fb41backed Yes | 0c | 17,014$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 15,357$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71c…7263backed Yes | 0c | 14,969$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 1c | 14,309$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 14,249$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3d…12e7backed Yes | 19c | 13,305$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,482 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 0c | 11,930$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…1bbfbacked Yes | 0c | 11,715$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…932dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,614$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 11,614$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae9…3e79backed Yes | 0c | 11,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,076$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 9,792$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…1deabacked Yes | 0c | 9,475$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 1c | 9,470$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…bd03backed Yes | 1c | 8,974$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d0…dc15backed Yes | 1c | 8,974$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…cecbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,944$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 0c | 8,775$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…3283backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd587…4ff2backed Yes | 0c | 7,962$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…e507backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1127backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…fcc0backed Yes | 0c | 7,120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2397…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 7,110$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 6,857$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…1b20backed Yes | 0c | 6,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…8b90backed Yes | 0c | 6,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 1c | 6,689$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,320$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…0002backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,833$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…1c80backed Yes | 0c | 5,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…7061backed Yes | 0c | 5,800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,778$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104e…c4acbacked Yes | 1c | 5,741$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 5,739$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd6…2b30backed Yes | 1c | 5,606$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592f…c2d5backed Yes | 1c | 5,553$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…12bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,523$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…f3adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…e093backed Yes | 1c | 5,276$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 0c | 5,209$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…63f2backed Yes | 1c | 5,196$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…05dbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,085$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…70edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,085$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1503…d91cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…3cabbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e45…b155backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…aecebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…6787backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b205backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316e…7910backed Yes | 1c | 4,945$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,928$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 2c | 4,892$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…6522backed Yes | 1c | 4,866$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,722$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…4768backed Yes | 1c | 4,711$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 4,693$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,535$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…4ef4backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ca…c34abacked Yes | 1c | 4,431$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad8…01e9backed Yes | 1c | 4,288$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a3…0703backed Yes | 1c | 4,263$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f9…e4d1backed Yes | 1c | 4,258$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…e706backed Yes | 1c | 4,070$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefe…bc5dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,061$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a9…a56ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,930$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,884$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.