Movies · resolved market
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2239eba5e038d08aa4ced697362abce36aad9602a412cd1288b8a1164d349c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $304,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,919$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 13,999$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,671$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 1c | 7,310$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 1c | 5,481$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,504$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked Yes | 1c | 4,434$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…9ed1backed Yes | 1c | 4,038$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…de60backed Yes | 0c | 4,005$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…9af5backed Yes | 1c | 3,929$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…522dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,888$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes | 1c | 3,832$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 3,109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…eca2backed Yes | 0c | 2,836$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…e741backed Yes | 2c | 2,647$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 1c | 2,525$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,361$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked Yes | 1c | 2,273$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…53bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cef…4017backed Yes | 1c | 1,978$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9f…32b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,799$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,762$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 1c | 1,751$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,641$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,358$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,254$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…ab01backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541f…5fa5backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.