TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,972,713

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,972,713 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes0c393,097$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.83258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c149,166$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.83205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c147,096$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.190%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc524…75a2backed Yes0c90,692$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c70,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c60,195$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbba…71ccbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-72.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes0c46,870$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.04137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes0c44,994$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes0c40,768$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes0c36,547$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c36,472$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d0…0850backed Yes2c30,653$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4a2…e39bbacked Yes0c25,008$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes0c22,839$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x314b…dd2fbacked Yes1c18,099$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes1c17,804$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes1c17,777$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e52…19acbacked Yes0c17,556$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c16,400$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a40…afaabacked Yes0c15,784$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c13,498$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes0c13,300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f86…bad3backed Yes0c12,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes1c12,381$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c12,248$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.681455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874d…e507backed Yes0c11,810$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Yes1c11,428$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.431233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2663…87d7backed Yes0c11,229$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c11,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3860%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes0c10,865$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes0c10,642$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes0c10,628$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.82290%0 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c10,421$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c10,198$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x221a…5ff0backed Yes0c10,190$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf58…1deabacked Yes0c10,083$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes1c10,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7410…04a3backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-88.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa302…74e8backed Yes0c9,990$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19dc…7942backed Yes1c9,923$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb43…49e9backed Yes1c9,783$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c9,614$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.12781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c9,456$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.666426.6%17 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes1c8,778$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.45128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…6414backed Yes0c8,671$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c9…232cbacked Yes1c8,656$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e2…1a63backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1680%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc3…d183backed Yes1c8,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes0c7,912$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-84.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c7,650$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb138…e27fbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c7,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes0c7,304$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b84…394cbacked Yes1c7,070$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c7,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes1c6,760$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.24140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c6,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes1c6,618$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c6,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes0c6,513$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.82120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes2c6,444$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0990%0 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c6,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a38…2a21backed Yes1c5,600$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2890%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes0c5,571$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes0c5,220$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.891,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff5…33c6backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f9…aecebacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d4…2d49backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes0c4,978$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.072013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes0c4,963$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-79.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,810$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.332042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c4,750$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc581…de6bbacked Yes1c4,540$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c4,400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes0c4,370$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes0c4,254$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca33…6680backed Yes3c4,194$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c4,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.17121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a7…0caebacked Yes0c4,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad0…c2a5backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd66…c2cbbacked Yes1c3,977$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710e…9a05backed Yes0c3,829$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c3,772$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes0c3,755$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes1c3,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe651…4661backed Yes2c3,630$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dbe…d681backed Yes0c3,600$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77cc…e72dbacked Yes0c3,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c3,119$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-94.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed Yes1c3,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c3,085$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.091164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes0c3,060$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-89.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9515…ce8ebacked Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6def…7096backed Yes1c3,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes0c3,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.