Movies · resolved market
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d594c1480eab1db09f6c04c089f92d0a45844bdfae32a6f3f8391f99a1ea081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,972,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,972,713 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 0c | 393,097$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.83 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 149,166$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.83 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 147,096$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 90,692$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 1c | 60,195$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…71ccbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 0c | 46,870$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 0c | 44,994$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 40,768$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 0c | 36,547$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 0c | 36,472$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…0850backed Yes | 2c | 30,653$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…e39bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 22,839$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…dd2fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,099$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 17,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 1c | 17,777$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…19acbacked Yes | 0c | 17,556$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,400$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 0c | 15,784$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 13,498$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 0c | 13,300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…bad3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes | 1c | 12,381$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 12,248$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…e507backed Yes | 0c | 11,810$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 1c | 11,428$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 0c | 11,229$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b205backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,865$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes | 0c | 10,642$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 0c | 10,628$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,421$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 10,198$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221a…5ff0backed Yes | 0c | 10,190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…1deabacked Yes | 0c | 10,083$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…04a3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa302…74e8backed Yes | 0c | 9,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…7942backed Yes | 1c | 9,923$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…49e9backed Yes | 1c | 9,783$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 9,614$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,456$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 1c | 8,778$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…6414backed Yes | 0c | 8,671$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,656$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,912$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…7061backed Yes | 0c | 7,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb138…e27fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…3283backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,304$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…394cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,070$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…8b90backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,760$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1127backed Yes | 0c | 6,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 1c | 6,618$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 0c | 6,513$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 2c | 6,444$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…0002backed Yes | 0c | 6,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes | 0c | 5,220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…33c6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…aecebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…2d49backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,978$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 0c | 4,963$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,810$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…1c80backed Yes | 0c | 4,750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…de6bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…17c5backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,370$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 4,254$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…6680backed Yes | 3c | 4,194$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a7…0caebacked Yes | 0c | 4,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…c2a5backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…c2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,977$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710e…9a05backed Yes | 0c | 3,829$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,772$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 0c | 3,755$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Yes | 2c | 3,630$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…d681backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…e72dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…e89abacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…fd92backed Yes | 1c | 3,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 3,085$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 0c | 3,060$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…ce8ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.