Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87ac5bb74a21061d4f223d2a83c0269607fcb6d4c74d5a3d3220209d089431a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,868,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,583,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,868,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,929 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 98,521$15,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,278.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…781fbacked Yes | 16c | 94,740$14,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,874.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 18c | 63,004$11,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,276.62 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 14c | 59,364$8,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,247.36 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…cc11backed No | 80c | 50,654$40,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,246.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ec…f78dbacked Yes | 20c | 50,647$10,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,245.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…c815backed Yes | 21c | 37,831$7,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,801 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…c67cbacked Yes | 18c | 36,215$6,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,375.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -61%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 16c | 34,831$5,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,497.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked No | 79c | 30,279$24,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,270.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 21c | 25,638$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 14c | 24,829$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.12 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2500…3d83backed Yes | 26c | 23,535$6,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,028.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 15c | 22,133$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.04 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 19c | 21,478$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.83 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…87a1backed Yes | 10c | 21,055$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 20,667$3,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.16 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…811fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 20c | 18,873$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.55 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 17,820$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,948.15 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed Yes | 16c | 17,640$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…2032backed Yes | 15c | 17,295$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 22c | 16,407$3,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…551abacked Yes | 20c | 16,313$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 13c | 15,568$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.01 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 19c | 15,525$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.71 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4a…170fbacked Yes | 17c | 14,970$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 4c | 13,752$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.57 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 21c | 13,714$2,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…4986backed Yes | 24c | 12,300$2,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,902.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 11c | 12,197$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed Yes | 17c | 11,512$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 18c | 11,067$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Yes | 14c | 11,058$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…6fcfbacked Yes | 24c | 10,800$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…8b3abacked No | 79c | 10,547$8,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1a…a5cdbacked Yes | 23c | 10,452$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 10,063$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.9 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 17c | 9,780$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 21c | 9,758$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 15c | 9,368$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…fd88backed Yes | 13c | 8,813$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 8,276$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.99 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…6895backed Yes | 24c | 8,259$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 7,882$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 6c | 7,709$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.59 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 19c | 7,448$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…5deabacked Yes | 15c | 7,445$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…825abacked Yes | 24c | 7,402$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,393$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 15c | 7,319$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 19c | 7,059$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…3f24backed Yes | 11c | 6,917$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 14c | 6,757$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.34 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2d…f033backed Yes | 16c | 6,455$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 74c | 6,253$4,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.23 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,200$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 8c | 5,926$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 5,920$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.28 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed Yes | 20c | 5,818$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…ff10backed Yes | 19c | 5,574$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 21c | 5,500$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,339$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.91 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed Yes | 19c | 5,307$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 20c | 5,150$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.86 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 15c | 5,049$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.47 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…52d8backed Yes | 19c | 5,026$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.94 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 19c | 4,956$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.86 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…0b21backed Yes | 20c | 4,907$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 15c | 4,803$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.51 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…b46cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,789$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 12c | 4,673$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.39 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 4,594$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.96 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…1b58backed Yes | 16c | 4,500$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,499$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…dba6backed Yes | 20c | 4,496$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,475$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 9c | 4,417$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 16c | 4,415$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 4,403$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.39 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 78c | 4,358$3,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 21c | 4,260$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 23c | 4,062$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbded…5ae9backed Yes | 22c | 4,041$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…558abacked Yes | 11c | 3,867$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…d1b8backed No | 77c | 3,800$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 3,785$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.23 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…dbebbacked No | 76c | 3,700$2,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 20c | 3,659$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…248bbacked No | 77c | 3,636$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 80c | 3,549$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c73dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,547$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 18c | 3,510$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.42 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,509$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,428$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…2ef0backed Yes | 22c | 3,427$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 20c | 3,416$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.