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Movies · resolved market

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$767,106
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$247,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,106 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c29,907$150 inLost-$150.2258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$44 inLost-$44504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…6e54backed Yes1c10,600$95 inLost-$95.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…9dd3backed Yes0c8,124$30 inLost-$29.7540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes1c8,000$51 inLost-$51.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes1c6,845$44 inLost-$43.5117821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbe…04e6backed Yes1c6,018$36 inLost-$36.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes0c5,000$13 inLost-$134131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a3…05d2backed Yes1c4,038$20 inLost-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes0c3,643$18 inLost-$17.75140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes1c3,479$38 inLost-$38.265726.3%15 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c3,346$16 inLost-$16.491,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes1c3,203$33 inLost-$33.34930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes0c2,848$14 inLost-$14.035523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x778c…0746backed Yes0c2,824$11 inLost-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes1c2,586$23 inLost-$22.617125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d5…f5c2backed Yes0c2,331$10 inLost-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes1c2,247$16 inLost-$16.343910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c2,027$13 inLost-$12.612781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd302…39f0backed Yes1c1,798$18 inLost-$18.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes1c1,736$12 inLost-$11.991612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c1,654$12 inLost-$11.8214015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1309…481fbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.