Movies · resolved market
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0266da952c7be95f42d76770972075b57ac3823f876a4967b9a696bf7f77cb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,388,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,388,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 783,860$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 136,434$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c00…2fdfbacked Yes | 0c | 89,429$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 53,454$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 0c | 51,132$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 50,938$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a2…a522backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes | 0c | 41,909$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…e6a0backed Yes | 0c | 41,811$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5711…2f81backed Yes | 1c | 37,466$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 0c | 34,180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 33,848$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…19acbacked Yes | 0c | 33,648$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…105ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,237$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…aaacbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 0c | 22,498$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4684…6054backed Yes | 0c | 21,681$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…7d88backed Yes | 1c | 19,064$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed Yes | 0c | 18,190$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…88e8backed Yes | 0c | 17,793$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…8f47backed Yes | 1c | 15,554$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…bad3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 1c | 14,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9e…3a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,916$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb92e…b526backed Yes | 0c | 14,197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b205backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes | 0c | 13,323$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…ecefbacked Yes | 0c | 12,904$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…7061backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 12,317$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 12,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffe…538ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…ba6ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…e507backed Yes | 0c | 11,310$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…8b90backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,620$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…42cfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,583$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d87…df8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,222$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d11…855bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,127$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 1c | 10,097$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…1deabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…803dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…0614backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…e949backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…653fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,992$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,737$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…ba78backed Yes | 0c | 9,664$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…3283backed Yes | 0c | 8,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 8,493$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…5720backed Yes | 0c | 8,490$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes | 1c | 8,294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 0c | 8,090$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…0002backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…4ef4backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…3c6cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…f8aabacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1127backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…1c80backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,368$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,173$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…169bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4746…d980backed Yes | 1c | 6,186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…1005backed Yes | 1c | 6,186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c59…538abacked Yes | 1c | 6,186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ab…dea1backed Yes | 1c | 6,097$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…baf3backed Yes | 1c | 6,097$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…431bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,097$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ec…0fb3backed Yes | 1c | 6,097$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…286fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,646$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 0c | 5,630$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,536$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,440$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…8ecebacked Yes | 0c | 5,371$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…c336backed Yes | 0c | 5,230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…a2fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,093$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9b62backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…aecebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…f67cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,907$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,490$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 0c | 4,443$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,241$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…c3d1backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 0c | 3,985$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…fcc0backed Yes | 0c | 3,713$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…44a2backed Yes | 1c | 3,642$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…a313backed Yes | 1c | 3,582$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf1…ddf0backed Yes | 1c | 3,578$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.